Poker Strategy Risk Of Ruin

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  1. Risk Of Ruin Calculator Poker
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Perdition
For some reason I could have swore I saw a RoR calculator either here or on WOO. I have looked though and couldn't find one so maybe I am mistaken.
Anyways if anyone could help me with the formula for this one. I just want to know the bankroll I should bring in when I start up full time VP playing. I think I will start on a low variance machine like the 25 cent 99.9996% JoB at Eastside. I am thinking 300 is more than enough but just wanted to make sure with the experts.

The calc tracks various long term play stats including percent of hands correct, average house edge increase from strategy errors, and hands per minute. Hands per minute is computed from the time between when 'Next Hand' is clicked to display the new hand and the time when 'Draw Cards' is clicked. The risk of ruin formula as correctly given by Pokerdope counts these instances as a failure. A risk of ruin formula is not and cannot be based on confidence intervals. Attempting to use confidence intervals to compute risk of ruin is a well known blunder. As you can see, the risk of ruin when playing video poker can now be determined precisely. You can do the calculation yourself, or Video Poker Times issue 7.5 presents a table giving the necessary bankroll for whatever you consider to be an acceptable risk of ruin for a dozen attractive games. But again, poker itself is too complicated to be fully captured in such models and, in my opinion, most of these 'risk of ruin' calculations are somewhat meaningless in the extent to which they are removed from the real world. Risk of ruin is a concept in gambling, insurance, and finance relating to the likelihood of losing all one's investment capital or extinguishing one's bankroll below the minimum for further play. For instance, if someone bets all their money on a simple coin toss, the risk of ruin is 50%. In a multiple-bet scenario, risk of ruin accumulates with the number of bets: each repeated play increases the risk, and persistent play. The goal live poker risk of ruin calculator of this strategy is to win a huge amount of money before you reach your bonus amount, cancel the bonus and walk away with your winnings. So let’s do the same example as above. The goal of a good BRM strategy is hence to move up limits as aggressively as possible while still retaining a tolerable (or negligible) risk of ruin. BRM in Cash Games The commonly cited value for cash games is to have 25 buyins in our bankroll for whichever limit we are playing.

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beachbumbabs
Administrator
Try this:
RoR
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Perdition
Figured I would just use this thread instead of starting a new one:
Ok just had a couple more questions. On RoR do you adjust every time you win(assuming everything you win goes directly back into the bankroll) or is that already factored in to the initial amount.
Also what constitutes a unit? If I am playing nickels would 1 unit be 5 cents or would it be 25 cents since things like the royal are predicated off the 5 coin play?
Thanks again for those who have helped prior and continue to help.
mickeycrimm

Also what constitutes a unit? If I am playing nickels would 1 unit be 5 cents or would it be 25 cents since things like the royal are predicated off the 5 coin play?

Risk Of Ruin Calculator Poker


If you are playing five coin nickels then 1 betting unit is 25 cents. What kind of card benefits will you be getting at Eastside playing 9/6/90 Jacks? I think that's important in calculating how big a bankroll you will need to keep your risk of ruin low.
'Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill.' Mickey Crimm
Perdition

If you are playing five coin nickels then 1 betting unit is 25 cents. What kind of card benefits will you be getting at Eastside playing 9/6/90 Jacks? I think that's important in calculating how big a bankroll you will need to keep your risk of ruin low.


I might have to wait on the 100% JoB until I get my bankroll up a bit now that I have seen the actual numbers. I will probably work on nickels for a while until my bankrolls is in the thousands rather than the hundreds. IIRC Eastside was around 4 dollars=1 point for the higher stuff. 400 points = 1 dollar so about 1600 coin in per 1 dollar. The main reason I wanted to play there was because someone from here said they had some of the best mailers ever from there.
7craps

I might have to wait on the 100% JoB until I get my bankroll up a bit now that I have seen the actual numbers.

what actual numbers did you see?
I sure hope the numbers you saw did not come from this
Quote: beachbumbabs

Try this:
RoR

do not try this to use at video poker
it is useless
(not fulfilling or not expected to achieve the intended purpose or desired outcome)
you may need some better tools
try video poker for winners
unless you do not want to be a winner

and run some simulations to be certain you know the bankroll requirements
that may look to be too low or too high to you are correct
of course, if you are good at playing vp games perfectly, start a syndicate and do not worry about your bankroll.
Just convince your investors you are one of the best and worth the investment.
Good Luck
Perdition
I found one from the Wizard actually. Makes me feel dumb for asking when I could have searched a bit more and found it. It only covers 3 paytables but has been good as I have been getting more and more used to deuces wild.
Wizard RoR
Still I appreciated all the help and the RoR link from before.
7craps

I found one from the Wizard actually. Makes me feel dumb for asking

nothing bad about feeling dumb.
the end result matters
excellent start
what is your desired risk of ruin?
5%, 1% or less.
each level down wants more money to start
I would think actually winning would be more important.
sure, a bankroll can keep you playing through nasty downswings.
what are your chances of showing a net win after playing 10,000 hands (for example)
If you never win and never bust a bankroll
Pokeris it all just for fun?
'full time VP playing'
Just do not follow all Stevie Nicks words playing VP
'Now here you go again
You say you want your freedom
Well who am I to keep you down
It's only right that you should
PokerPlay the way you feel it
But listen carefully to the sound
Of your loneliness
Like a heartbeat, drives you mad
In the stillness of remembering

Video Poker Strategy

What you had, And what you lost

Blackjack Risk Of Ruin

And what you had, And what you lost'
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)